[Ausrace] Dominic Beirne

[Edward J. Minnis]

At 12:23 PM 12/02/03 +1100, trader wrote:
>thanks Whiffler.   It's official; dominic has done his dough!

G'day Trader ... The following may be of interest. Rgds ... EJ.

Dominic Beirne
Dominic is considered by many to be one of the most progressive and 
inventive thinkers in the Australian racing industry. In his early 20's he 
made his name as a price assessor and form analyst for the Sun newspaper 
and Radio 2KY. He was registered as a bookmaker at age 25 and two years 
later he had the highest turnover in the world of any licensed bookmaker 
betting solely on local events.

Dominic retired from bookmaking in 1988 to pursue other interests but kept 
his link to racing through racehorse owning and breeding. He has raced 
and/or bred a number of Group 1 winners including Avon Angel, Card Shark, 
Telesto, Fraternity and Bonanova. Dominic was invited to become a member of 
the NSW Thoroughbred Racing Board Appeals Panel when that Panel was 
inaugurated in 1998 and has been a member ever since.

Dominic owed much of his success as a gambling bookie to his ability to 
recognize innovative applications to form assessment. In the late 1970's 
and early 1980's, Dominic originated applications to form analysis which 
are practised today by many of the major players in the game.

He applied his successful interpretation of sectional times in races and 
barrier trials to create speed-maps - anticipating the running position of 
each runner and therefore the expectable pace of the race.

Speed-maps, when combined with Dominic's ability to identify the nuances of 
the racing surface and effect of wind strength and direction (commonly 
known as TRACK BIAS), became part of the arsenal which gave Dominic the 
WINNING EDGE.

Dominic utilised his knowledge of track bias as a post race form 
explanation for exaggeratedly good and poor performances and this approach 
facilitated his pre-race form analysis. Dominic combined this approach with 
original statistical charts and programmes to improve his pre-race market 
assessments.

As a student of handicap ratings, popularised by the Legal Eagles 
Syndicate, and Time Ratings, as published in a series of articles by Arthur 
Harris in the Sportsman newspaper in the 80's, Dominic realised the worth 
of using various approaches to assessing form. However, cross-pollenation 
of ideas and movements of staff meant that most of the significant players 
in the marketplace had a very similar Modus Operandi to each other and not 
much has changed in that regard, until now.


Tim Wooller
Tim has been writing wagering and racing software for 20 years. His early 
involvement with wagering systems resulted in the first computerised TV 
totalizator odds display. Since then he has been involved in many projects 
including the design and implementation of a complete wagering system, 
currently in use by TAB Limited on every racetrack in NSW.


Intelligent Wagering Solutions
Dominic Beirne and Tim Wooller incorporated IWS Pty. Ltd. two years ago in 
order to design, develop and implement computerized wagering solutions for 
totalizator companies and their clients. Amongst the products developed by 
IWS is @utowager, internationally patented technology for rapid bet processing.

Dominic and Tim decided to investigate whether a new approach to form 
analysis might be discoverable.


The Birth Of Value Bet
By putting over 1,000,000 race performances through regression analysis, 
some startling discoveries were made. Well worn and time honoured theories 
and racing cliches were put through the mill and a valency of importance 
was placed upon every conceivable piece of data and variable.

A series of filters was developed that allowed IWS to measure:

~ generic form patterns
~ individual form patterns
~ validity of popular and personal theories
~ effect on the horse of variable conditions to the track, jockey, trainer, 
distance, weight carried, barrier draw, starting price etc.

Some filters (e.g. track speed, effect of wind, track bias, approximate 
starting price) may not be measurable until close to post time.


After calculating the vast number of permutations required to "match-race" 
each runner against each rival through each of the filters, IWS is able to 
assign a winning probability to each runner. We call this the VALUE 
DIVIDEND. The second step to arriving at a VALUE BET is to estimate the 
approximate dividend that each runner may pay. We call this the ANTICIPATED 
DIVIDEND. A sophisticated model has been developed to achieve this to the 
best of our ability, given that the model is put into operation 15 minutes 
before post-time.

The following simple equation is then applied :

ANTICIPATED DIVIDEND > VALUE DIVIDEND = VALUE BET.

For example, IWS may calculate that a runner is worthy of a $5.00 dividend, 
but the anticipated dividend is $7.00. This runner is identified as a VALUE 
BET.

There may exist more than one value bet per race and not every race will 
reveal a VALUE BET.

SKY Channel - IWS Joint Venture
When IWS has identified a Value Bet, SKY Channel and the Telads 1902 238 
238 phone service are notified.
When a VALUE BET is available, Sky Channel and Sky Racing will put a symbol 
to air approximately 12 to 15 minutes before the start of the race.

The symbol will be in the form of a PINK V behind the smaller BLACK AND 
GOLD three letter State abbreviation.

This symbol will appear at the top left hand corner of the screen and will 
remain there for most of the time from when the VALUE BET becomes 
available, until the advertised starting time of the race.

On the occasions when there are VALUE BETS available on more than one 
upcoming race, the state codes will alternate every 30 seconds. For 
example, SA and NSW may alternate beneath the PINK V indicating that VALUE 
BETS are available on both the upcoming race in South Australia and New 
South Wales.

Punters may then choose to ring 1902 238 238 and for a fixed cost of $4.40 
(Higher cost from mobile and pay phones) hear the VALUE BET(s), which 
racetrack it's racing at, and the runners, if any, suggested to combine in 
multiples with the VALUE BET(s).

When customers telephone 1902 238 238, the operator will introduce them to 
the service and ask them to press 0 to continue. The operator will announce 
the availability of a VALUE BET, if one exists. If there is no available 
VALUE BET at the time, the customer will be informed of such and the call 
will be automatically disconnected. In this event the customers are not 
charged $4.40, but will be charged the cost of a local call. If there is an 
available VALUE BET, the customers will be directed to press a number to 
correspond with the Track Code. For example, the operator may announce to 
the customer to press2 for Flemington.

On the occasions when there is more than one VALUE BET available in a race, 
the TAB numbers will appear in numerical order, not in order of preference.

VALUE BET is a service that will operate only on Thoroughbred races and 
only on Thoroughbred races shown on SKY RACING.



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An average handicapper with superior betting skills will outperform
a superior handicapper with average betting skills.
Dick Mitchell in Commonsense Betting
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