[AusRace] Betfair Flucs on Marasco
Scott James
romanticcharm at hotmail.com
Sun Nov 26 18:49:45 WST 2006
Asct (AUS) 25th Nov - R7 1500m Grp3
Betting on: Marasco
Total matched on this event: $124,559
Reduction Factor 52.6%
Betting summary - Volume: $115,316
Last price matched: 1.57
Traded and Available
Odds To back To lay Traded
1.55 $200
1.57 $26,594
1.59 $9,479
1.60 $5,713
1.61 $4,446
1.62 $13,556
1.63 $6,958
1.64 $1,082
1.65 $6,998
1.66 $1,674
1.67 $8,024
1.68 $9,219
1.69 $5,465
1.70 $6,883
1.71 $1,886
1.72 $454
1.74 $30
1.75 $2,116
1.76 $110
1.77 $607
1.78 $442
1.79 $2,898
1.80 $482
>From: "John Doepel" <glenglen at iinet.net.au>
>Reply-To: AusRace Mailing List <ausrace at it.net.au>
>To: "'AusRace Mailing List'" <ausrace at it.net.au>
>Subject: Re: [AusRace] To lay or not to lay
>Date: Sun, 26 Nov 2006 00:15:08 +0800
>
>Does anyone know the aprox Betfair flucs on Marasco?
>
>Cheers,
>
>john
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: ausrace-bounces at it.net.au [mailto:ausrace-bounces at it.net.au] On
>Behalf
>Of vino vino
>Sent: Saturday, 25 November 2006 5:25 PM
>To: ausrace at it.net.au
>Subject: Re: [AusRace] To lay or not to lay
>
>very disappointing.
>think we all got the barrier query right, and jockey query.
>just a damn shame wont be going round next week in railway...still think
>he's a class above everything else...seriously seriously boxed in
>though...luck of the draw can matter sometimes.
>
>
> >From: "Scott James" <romanticcharm at hotmail.com>
> >Reply-To: AusRace Mailing List <ausrace at it.net.au>
> >To: ausrace at it.net.au
> >Subject: Re: [AusRace] To lay or not to lay
> >Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2006 16:30:50 +0800
> >
> >The average Victorian galloper Electric General blitzed them in the Group
>3
> >Colonel Reeves Stakes, yes thats right, he won a Group race :)
> >Had never even raced in a listed race before, let alone a Group race.
> >Another example of how weak Group races are in WA.
> >Bring on Polar Bear David!!!!
> >
> > >From: "Scott James" <romanticcharm at hotmail.com>
> > >Reply-To: AusRace Mailing List <ausrace at it.net.au>
> > >To: ausrace at it.net.au
> > >Subject: Re: [AusRace] To lay or not to lay
> > >Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2006 09:33:12 +0800
> > >
> > >Well done Roman :) ...you should move to WA and become a WA media man
>as
> > >you couldn't do any worse than whats here.
> > >Belle Bizarre winning last week showed you how average the sprinters
>are
> >in
> > >WA.
> > >She couldn't win in Melbourne and got beat by some pretty average mares
> > >over
> > >there.
> > >Top races there today ???
> > >I couldn't agree with you sorry.
> > >Some pretty average horses going around in Perth.
> > >You would have to think that Polar Bear and Niconero would spank
> > >them over here.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >From: "Roman " <romankoz at bigpond.net.au>
> > > >Reply-To: AusRace Mailing List <ausrace at it.net.au>
> > > >To: "'AusRace Mailing List'" <ausrace at it.net.au>
> > > >Subject: [AusRace] To lay or not to lay
> > > >Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2006 11:49:55 +1100
> > > >
> > > >Racing interest shifts towards the West today with the running of the
> >RJ
> > > >Peters Group 3 where the highly promising Marasco faces his toughest
> > >test.
> > > >Marasco has several problems to overcome today. He is drawn Barrier 1
> >and
> > > >for a get back type this is not good especially considering that all
> > > >jockeys
> > > >will want to make sure he does not get any easy run in transit. If
>the
> > > >opportunity arises to keep in a pocket pocketed he will be. Backing
>get
> > > >back
> > > >types is always fraught with danger due to the real reliance of
>genuine
> > > >early pace as a slowly run race early will mean the get back type
>needs
> > >to
> > > >run sensational sectionals to make up the ground and win. In a post
> >last
> > > >week sometime I mentioned that Marasco's sectionals were not the best
> >on
> > > >the
> > > >day of his last win. However, how much time was metaphorically up his
> > > >sleeve? You can make a mess of your punting by devotion to
>sectionals:
> > > >they
> > > >are a difficult punting tool to master and yours truly only looks
> >broadly
> > > >at
> > > >them for an overview rather than trying to dissect each effort.
> > > >
> > > >In the Melb Herald Sun he is $1.60 and "young" Ken Blake informs me
> >$1.70
> > > >is
> > > >on offer fixed odds. Such short odds offers those with guts and an
> > >opinion
> > > >to make a killing on Betfair as a layer as there is no doubt in the
> >wide
> > > >world that those odds are well and truly unders, long term, about
> >Marasco
> > > >because at the moment he is a promising, hype horse. Grizzled
>veterans
> > >like
> > > >Ken and myself have seen a squillion of those types over the years
>bite
> > >the
> > > >dust like Custer at the Little Big Horn.
> > > >
> > > >As you can see below I find the race quite open. When I price a field
> >so
> > > >wide I am basically telling myself if I have a bet it is to be at the
> > > >minimum bet size.
> > > >
> > > >I will lay Marasco today on Betfair. He will be grossly unders and I
> > > >suspect
> > > >I will probably be able to lay him around 1/1 or a bit worse. I am
> >happy
> > >to
> > > >do so.
> > > >
> > > >There is only one problem: Marasco does not know what odds he is but
> >the
> > > >punt, whether as a layer or bettor, revolves around opinion and
>here's
> > > >mine.
> > > >By the way, if you fancy taking him on you might want to have a look
>at
> > >the
> > > >fixed odds markets because Marasco has to win the race (I believe) to
> > > >ensure
> > > >a start in the Group 1 Railway and at 7/2 for that race a judicious
> > > >approach
> > > >to backing others may pay off on the day as there will a complete
> >market
> > > >change and a little bit of arbitraging might work as well.
> > > >
> > > >Go West, folks: some top races there today.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >Race 7: 1500m Open Group 3
> > > >
> > > >$5.50 Idyllic Prince
> > > >
> > > >$6.00 Marasco
> > > >
> > > >$8.00 Ripped
> > > >
> > > >$9.00 Who Did It
> > > >
> > > > Well, this is the race where we find out how good
>Marasco
> > > >really
> > > >is. At present he is favourite for the Group 1 Railway Stakes which
>is
> > > >quite
> > > >an expectation but before we think about that race today shows he has
> >to
> > > >overcome a really awkward barrier draw for a get back type and I
> >suspect
> > > >all
> > > >the other jockeys will be watching him carefully and if there is a
> >chance
> > > >to
> > > >zip him into a pocket I am sure that most jockeys would do so.
>Although
>
> >I
> > > >am
> > > >no expert on sectionals I noted several horses had run better
> >sectionals
> > >at
> > > >the same meeting he won at last start for the last 600m and that
> >worries
> > > >me.
> > > >I am astounded to note he is odds on for this race. I have selected
> > >Idyllic
> > > >Prince, however, as I think he has an excellent racetrack future (it
> > >hasn't
> > > >been too bad so far!!) and is what I call a fighter. His last start
>win
> > >was
> > > >a strong effort as he sustained a solid 600m run to just last 3rd up
> >and
> > >he
> > > >will be rock solid for this race. Ripped, although a sensational
> >Belmont
> > > >Park horse, worked his way home solidly last run behind Idyllic
>Prince.
> > > >Who
> > > >Did It ran an excellent race beaten 1L behind Belle Bizarre after 47
> >days
> > > >off the scene and if he reproduces that sterling effort he is some
> >chance
> > > >at
> > > >odds.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >Roman Koz
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >_______________________________________________
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> > >
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