A Punting Journey Part 1
by Michael O'Shaunessy Duffy (email mdu59851 at bigpond.net.au )
A number of people, mainly Cygnet Foundation Members, have asked me to start from scratch regarding my punting attitudes and methods, so rather than re-hash old work, I propose to start from scratch and add from past writings as necessary .
What I have to say are largely my own thoughts and proven methodology, but many of my professional punting mates have similar attitudes ....they just come at matters from a different angle is all .
Many longer term members will have read some of the following comments previously, but there's lots of new stuff included . We need to remember that many of our newer members are just starting to grasp what winning at the punt is all about ....the amount of work, dedication , and discipline that's necessary .
For this reason, I intend to share this 5 part series with any Ausracer that cares to take part . Others who have no interest in what could be described as "basics" and even "self -evident givens " can delete on sight . Many basics and self - evident givens however are anything but this simple .
I intend to cover more of the esoteric and psychological aspects of punting .
Much has been written by many over the years regarding the mechanical aspects of the punt, filtering, selection, isolating probable winners from possibles, pricing, making a book etc etc.
What I and some others regard as the "easier " factors of successful punting . The more difficult areas to identify and conquer are the "esoteric" and "psychological" aspects of the punt . Areas in which we have to examine ourselves personally for flaws and strengths in our punting and general psyches - not always a pleasant, and therefore a somewhat difficult task .
A task however, that I regard as of paramount importance . With just 5 weeks of very average racing coming up between now and Christmas I don't intend travelling between now and then when I'm due in Chiangmai for Christmas, so I have some spare time .
I don't intend attending the Christmas/New Year Racing in Sydney this year as I did earlier this year, I may change my mind, but I don't expect that NSW racing will have settled down form-wise by then . I intend including most aspects of punting for consideration in 5 parts . Those of you who are not interested can just delete on sight, others are welcome to take whatever complements their personal punting psyche .
Questions and comments are welcome.
This is not an easy game to conquer and like everything worthwhile in life requires dedication, hard work, discipline, persistence, a preparedness to change ingrown old attitudes and many other boring, boring boring factors.
It is the learning that can be boring, certainly not the results if you can stay the distance . If you stick at it faithfully you can expect one of two positive results
- You can join that less than 5% of all regular punters who consistently make a profit from punting. YEP, that's right, less than 5% (these are the most recent Aussie figures I suspect US figures are similar, or even less, as you don't have the benefit of Bookmakers. I would also think UK figures are similar but have no supporting data .
- You can reduce the rate of your loss at the punt. How much you reduce it is entirely up to how hard you work at it and how much you WANT to be a winner, wishing is nowhere near enough to make much of a change - you have to be determined and desperate and want it to happen almost above all else .
Just a few points to ponder before you decide to take this difficult task on
What I have to say doesn't come from books or other people's experience the knowledge I'm passing on is purely from my own experience .
Other successful and professional punters may do things slightly differently, but generally, they all follow the same basics and psychological approach closely .
There comes a time in your punting journey when you reach that point when you have to face the fact that it's time to stop jumping from one idea to another and get some sort of order and purpose into your punting .
- It won't happen overnight .
- There is no "Holy Grail" of punting no secret formula no easy way .
- 99.9% of the advertisements that you read in punting mags and newspapers making all sorts of ridiculous claims are bullshit ........nothing more that money-making scams that never fail to suck in plenty of unwary novice and gullible punters .
- be prepared to work hard on 2 main personal aspects - discover your weaknesses and identify your strengths. These vary for everyone it takes honesty and courage to do this .
What I propose to do for the rest of this first newsletter in a 5 part series is to briefly set out a few details of my successful punting journey that began in 1989. I've not had to deal with a losing year since, but have gone damn close, especially in those years that ill health affected my concentration. If I appear to dwell on certain aspects it's because I regard these areas of evolvement as important .
Before you begin any given task it's important to know exactly where you are right now and how you got to that point. It's important to know exactly how much baggage we bring to the table and the nature of that baggage. These differ for all of us and no-one ever begins on an equallevel with anyone else .
Successful Punting is not a group activity, yet so many of us treat it as exactly that. Why is this so? I'll then set out a list of the 10 main factors that I refer to as "The Winning (and losing) Frame of Mind" .
In 1989, I was 46 years of age, I had lived the life of a batchelor since 1970, I had a lovely "Ex" with whom I was still great friends and two beautiful kids who were then 24 and 25 years of age (they are now in their early 40's).
I was also blest with a brand new beautiful daughter, Sunni (now 18 years)
, who arrived in May of that year, the result of a relationship I'd had
with her Mum Lui since 1985.
Lui and Sunni continued to live in Chiangmai
in Northern Thailand in a traditional Laana style bungalow that we built on
Lui's parent's property,
our main home is now on the adjoining 2 hectares of land and fronts the Ping River .
I had a very successful Management Consultancy operating out of Townsville employing 14 staff, we specialised in servicing the Australian Tourist Industry, mainly the off-shore islands off the coast of QLD and NSW and I personally was involved in paving the way for various joint-ventures between SE Asian and Australian Companies.In fact, Lui's Dad, Arthur was one of my main clients and that's how I came to meet and fall in love with his beautiful daughter .
Sounds a pretty good life on the surface, doesn't it?
The big fly in the ointment was that I was a "Racing Tragic" , and had been one since the age of around 12 years of age. What's more I was the worst bloody punter that God ever put breath into!
It didn't matter much in those days, I was making good money and I just loved the racing caper, loved racehorses, loved racing people, even though I knew that I was no good at the punt.
I was travelling a lot, away from home a lot and to keep me entertained while travelling around OZ and SE Asia, I taught myself to successfully count cards at Blackjack, just to prove I could do it.
The trouble was I didn't have "the passion" for Blaxkjack and Casinos that I have for thoroughbreds and racecourses and I quickly lost a lot of interest in Blackjack.
Then something happenend that changed my whole outlook on Racing and Punting, and in fact, my life. A large International firm by the name of Price Waterhouse made me yet another offer for my business, the 3rd and one that I couldn't refuse.
All of a sudden, I had lots of time on my hands. I also had one other very big advantage, two of my Dad's mates - blokes he had survived Tobruk and New Guinea alongside, were frequent visitors to our house with their families when we were growing up.
These two blokes seemed to just play golf, go to the races, drive nice cars, live in nice houses and seemed to live very comfortably .
Dad explained that they were "professional punters" - very successful ones. The advantage I had was the living proof that winning at the punt was possible.
I looked them up in 1989-90 and they agreed to help where they could, even though they were around 70 and had in the most part retired comfortably. Their main input as I remember it today was that they concentrated on telling me what not to do, rather than give me pro-active tips.
They maintained that most punters lost at the caper because of the mistakes they made, both practically and psychologically (psychological aspects of punting is not a new invention, just a much ignored one). I spent the next 12 months developing what I still call today my "Cygnet Strategy "
I didn't bet real money, but kept adjusting my strategy, fine tuning my selection filters and grading them into levels of importance and Cyber betting .
In late 1989, I began punting real money. I started with a unit value of $50 flat-staked and didn't vary this for 12 months . I had worked out my own Punting Bank (that I refer to 'till this day as "Working Capital" ) using probability theory, Kelly Criterion and a Risk of Ruin chart .
It can be calculated simply by the facter of 2.5%.
ie. my average bet has to be no more than 2.5% of my Working Capital, in the case of $50,
this amounted to $2,000, for $100 it is $4,000 and for $1,000, it is $40,000.
In 19 years, my Working Capital has never been seriously threatened, although it has taken a good shaking from time to time .
Naturally as my staking has escalated, my Working Capital has increased. I still refer to many aspects of my punting in professional, business-like terms - winnings are profits, punting bank is working capital - what others refer to as systems, I refer to as complete strategies.
The only factor that could be regarded as "systematic" in my Cygnet Strategy is the discipline and attention to detail . Thinking in a professional manner equates to doing it in a professinal manner - for me there's no other successful way.
Once I had flat-staking sorted out - it wasn't perfect but had many of the flaws fine tuned out - it was time for me to get a staking plan. This was after 12 months of flat-staking.
The long and the short of it was that I couldn't find a suitable plan that complemented my Cygnet Methodology so I developed MaxiTen from scratch. I still use it to this day successfully, but I've tweaked it a fair bit over the years. I can't remember what profit I made in those early years, I have it all recorded on floppy's but they are in another place.
All I do remember is that compared to today it was very modest , but importantly, I'd broken the losing mould and it felt good and most importantly , I felt good about myself. Just remember, at this time, I had the luxury of plenty of time on my hands, much more time than many of you have today .
You don't necessarily need a lot of time once you have it all together, but putting it all together takes a lot of dedication and time, just as becoming any other sort of professional does .
Medical students, Law students, Pharmacists, Accountants get nowhere without dedication and devoting a lot of time to learning their craft . Why should it be any easier for Punters?
The truth is, it's not!
Lot's of Punters *wish* to become winning Punters, many *wish* to even become professionals but how many really *want* it so bad that they'll do whatever it takes? Much of Cygnet Strategy was developed from original ideas, but an equal amount was plagiarised from many sources and adapted to suit me personally. In my view, there is no such thing as "one size fits all ".
Everyone has an individual punting psyche, everyone has an an individual personal goal, everyone has a different comfort zone, everyone has different dangerous flaws and baggage that they bring to their punting.
Bad habits, flawed logic, ridiculous moves passed down from generation to generation, rubbish that we have to discard, not just once, but time and time again as they keep raising their ugly heads, sometimes for years .
On the other hand, each of us brings different strengths to the table .
Knowing these individual flaws and strengths is paramount, but it is far from an easy task, mainly because it involves strict honesty about ourselves and that is often painful .
More on this in "The Winning ( and losing ) Frame of Mind " . You will find in the following 4 newsletters of this series that I tend to concentrate a lot on the psychological aspects of punting which I consider exremely important .
Not exclusively of course, but this aspect of punting is not generally considered by many and without this consideration, I don't believe it's possible to be a consistent winning punter .
I believe that in any form of gambling, the practical techniques are the easiest to master . Pickin' winners is *not* the hardest part of the equation . It's in the areas of self-knowledge, discipline, persistence, preparation , etc, that most punters let themselves down .
Never blame the Bookies, the Tabs and Totes, other Punters, Horses, Jockies, Trainers, bad Karma, bad weather, track bias, shit happens or anything else for your lack of punting success .
Whether you wish to hear it or not losing at the punt is very much a self-inflicted condition, and as such, can be rectified .
The Winning (and losing) Frame of Mind
Below I've listed the 10 major points that I consider make up the "The Winning (and losing) Frame of Mind".I've spoken of this over the years to save time and effort, I'll simply repeat what I've said on other ocassions and edit and add to it .
In further posts, I'll elaborate further .
I would just like to re-iterate that what I have written is in no way meant to infer that these thoughts are essential to becoming a winning punter, or that they are the only way.
They are simply a few thoughts to ponder that I have picked up along my 19 year punting odyssey. The principles work for me so maybe they'll also be helpful to you .
This article is copyright ©
Michael O'Shaunessy Duffy 2007.
All rights reserved.
